Friday is the expiry day for cryptocurrency options. Nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) contracts are expected to settle or renew today. Crypto markets have risen in response to the apparent Trump rally in recent weeks, but can they maintain their momentum?
Expiring cryptocurrency options can cause significant price volatility, causing traders and investors to constantly follow current events.
$2.72B Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring
Deribit reported that 20,815 Bitcoin (BTC) contracts, worth $2.077 billion, are slated to expire today. The put-to-call ratio is 0.83, showing that traders continue to sell more calls (long contracts) than puts (short contracts).
The maximal pain point (the price at which the asset will result in financial losses for the greatest amount of holders) is $98,000. Notably, this is somewhat lower than the current spot market price of $99,758.
Meanwhile, 164,330 Ethereum (ETH) options contracts worth approximately $644 million will expire today. The put-to-call ratio is 0.68, suggesting that, like Bitcoin, traders sell more long contracts than short contracts.
According to Greek’s Live, this week’s market was dominated by corrections, in contrast to previous week’s, which saw a lower correction for Bitcoin and a greater decline for altcoins. However, as Christmas and yearly delivery approaches, market makers are beginning to shift positions.
13 Dec Options Data
21,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.83, a Maxpain point of $98,000 and a notional value of $2.1 billion.
164,000 ETH options expired with Put Call Ratio of 0.68, Maxpain point of $3,700 and notional value of $640 million.
This week’s market… pic.twitter.com/sAiSctiN9K— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) December 13, 2024
This begs the issue of whether there will be a Christmas surge this month, as the market has again reached a point of greater dispersion. Currently, BTC oscillates below $100,000, while ETH oscillates barely below $4,000.
The recent two weeks of options market data have revealed that market makers are increasingly cautious. Despite the market’s rapid oscillations, the primary term implied volatility (IV) has increased somewhat. Against this context, Greeks.live experts believe options are now ideal for short-term gaming.
“…the cost-effective way to buy options is still very high,” they added.
Meanwhile, these expiring options follow a chaotic week for US economic statistics. In November, US inflation jumped to 2.7%, while core CPI remained unchanged at 0.3%. While a Fed rate decrease is generally expected, persistent inflation complicates the road to prolonged monetary easing.
Grayscale launches Trusts based on Lido DAO and Optimism
Grayscale stated today that it would launch two new investment vehicles: a Lido DAO Trust (LDO) and an Optimism Trust (OP). Both trusts are now accessible.
The company argued that Lido DAO and Optimism had comparable potential to contribute to Ethereum’s blockchain ecosystem. Both assets have followed similar price paths over the last year.
Grayscale creates new Trusts based on 2 altcoins
Grayscale, one of the main Bitcoin ETF issuers, announced the news today via press release. The Lido DAO and Optimism Trusts will both provide exposure to the protocols’ tokens. The corporation did, however, draw attention to Ethereum, the blockchain that powers both systems.
“Grayscale Lido DAO Trust and Grayscale Optimism Trust provide investors with exposure to protocols helping to increase Ethereum’s efficiency, security, scalability, and adoption within the broader DeFi ecosystem – playing a critical role in the Ethereum story,” said Grayscale’s Head of Product & Research, Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary.
The business has already used this strategy, creating a non-ETF Trust that provides exposure to cryptoassets. Grayscale turned an existing Trust product into a Bitcoin ETF and launched two new Trusts in November. It established an XRP Trust at the start of the month, while other companies filed for an ETF and one based on XLM weeks later.
Aside from the usage of Ethereum, both systems share a few commonalities. Optimism, a rollup scaling solution, has experienced significant pricing fluctuations in the recent year. Although the overall crypto bull market has given it fresh life, Optimism’s token worth experienced significant losses early this year.
Lido, an Ethereum staking service, has seen a similar roller coaster this year. It experienced a problem in their Solana service in April, resulting in widespread bad press.
However, there have been encouraging technical improvements, such as the implementation of Chainlink CCIP in October.
In other words, Grayscale may have picked Lido DAO and Optimism based on their spectacular recoveries, as well as their ability to help the Ethereum network. Grayscale already offers an Ethereum ETF, but it has performed badly. However, both of these Ethereum-connected devices are gaining significant traction.
Dogecoin sees 60,000 new holders in 10 days: DOGE parabolic run ahead?
The number of new Dogecoin (DOGE) investors has surged in recent days, indicating the possibility of a price rebound comparable to the last spike between September 23 and December 12. During that time, DOGE’s price increased from $0.10 to $0.47.
Could this unexpected surge of holders be the impetus for a breakthrough, or will the meme coin suffer another drawdown?
Investors take new Dogecoin positions amid historical support
Between November 22 and December, the overall number of Dogecoin holders decreased from 7.14 million to 6.80 million. Interestingly, this dip occurred at the same time that DOGE’s rise ran out of steam, with the price falling from $0.47 to $0.39.
This price drop and fall in holder count indicate massive profit-taking at the time. However, on-chain data from Santiment as of this writing indicates that things have changed.
According to the analytics platform, the total number of DOGE holders has increased to 6.68 million. This means that 60,000 new holders have actively added the meme coin to their wallets in the last ten days.
A increase in holder count is typically regarded as a positive indication, indicating that the cryptocurrency is attracting ordinary investors. Furthermore, this occurs at a time when crypto whales continue to play an important role in determining the direction of the coin. If the current trend continues, DOGE’s price might rise above $0.42.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio lends credence to this notion. The MVRV is the ratio of a coin’s current price to the average price at which it was obtained. The measure also determines if an asset is overpriced or undervalued.
An excessively high MVRV ratio shows an increase in unrealized gains, implying that the cryptocurrency may be approaching overvaluation. A low MVRV ratio, on the other hand, indicates that the asset is undervalued and may be a good investment.
As of this writing, Dogecoin’s 30-day MVRV ratio has shifted from negative to 0.69%. The last time such a reversal occurred, the price increased from $0.10 to $0.47, as previously mentioned. Therefore, if history rhymes with the current pattern, DOGE may undergo another parabolic rally.
DOGE price prediction: $1 target still in place
The daily DOGE/USD chart depicts the creation of a bull flag. A bull flag is a pattern that consists of two rallies followed by a brief consolidation period.
As shown below, the pattern starts with a strong, almost vertical price surge known as the flagpole, which is caused by aggressive purchasing that catches sellers off guard. This is followed by a retreat, which forms the “flag,” as shown by parallel upper and lower trendlines.
During the downturn, the initial advance slows owing to profit-taking, and the price consolidates in a narrow range, resulting in slightly lower highs and lower lows. Meanwhile, it appears like Dogecoin (DOGE) price is on the cusp of restarting its rise, with a potential breakthrough on the way.
Once approved, DOGE’s price might rise to $0.60. In an extremely negative scenario, the meme coin’s value may approach $1.
However, if the price falls below the lower trendline of this flag, this prediction may be invalidated. A decrease in the number of new Dogecoin holders may also result in a price fall. In such event, DOGE might drop below $0.33.
