As economists contrast the present macroeconomic picture with prior cycles, especially the trade battles during the Trump administration, cryptocurrency and financial markets are feeling a sense of déjà vu.
All eyes are on the US dollar index (DXY) and the M2 Money Supply for any clues as traders and investors anxiously await a revival in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin, Altcoins & Tariffs: Is a 2017-style rally ahead?
A new graphic from ZeroHedge shows how the fluctuations of the US Dollar Index (DXY) in 2016 closely resemble those in 2025. This strengthens the argument that historical patterns are reflected in current market developments.
Deja vu all over again pic.twitter.com/MhG7QNjEJh
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 6, 2025
Investors have taken notice of this resemblance, especially in the cryptocurrency space. Analysts predict if the trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies will resemble their bull cycle from 2017.
The Kobeissi Letter, a financial market commentary, offered insight into this debate by highlighting the parallels between Trump’s Tariff War 1.0 and 2.0.
The macroeconomic environment of now is different from that of the previous Trump administration, as the essay recognizes. It also points out that a number of technical trends have been very similar across asset classes, such as equities, gold, oil, and Bitcoin.
Gold prices have increased by more than 10% so far this year, indicating a move toward safer assets. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has dropped by about 10%. This discrepancy emphasizes how crucial risk appetite is in influencing market sentiment.
These findings are further supported by the recent price movement of bitcoin. Bitcoin had a sharp decline of $2,000 in only twenty-five minutes on March 4, getting close to the $90,000 barrier level. Even in the absence of significant news, market players have observed that cryptocurrency prices often fluctuate by more than $100 billion.
This implies that technical resistance levels and movements motivated by liquidity dominate price swings. According to The Kobeissi Letter, long-term investors who capitalized on the instability during the first round of the Trump Trade War discovered fantastic deals. This implies that comparable circumstances could recur.
Altcoin season to align with Trump Season
In the meanwhile, there is a developing theory in the cryptocurrency community that “Altcoin Season” may coincide with “Trump Season.” Bitcoindata21, a cryptocurrency investor and analyst, pointed out how the price movement of Bitcoin in 2025 is similar to the 2017 cycle. This finding supports the theory that a significant cryptocurrency surge may be imminent.
It’s 2017 Trump cycle all over again. Altseason = Trumpseason pic.twitter.com/P3ge1AupzC
— bitcoindata21 (@bitcoindata21) March 6, 2025
According to historical patterns, when money shifts, a thriving Bitcoin market frequently comes before altcoins see spectacular development. This suggests that the cryptocurrency boom of Trump’s first term may be mirrored in an impending bullish cycle.
In other places, more general economic patterns also suggest that Bitcoin may rise. The DXY just dropped below a crucial support level, which has traditionally been a positive indication for Bitcoin, as BeInCrypto noted. Investors are more likely to turn to alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrency when the dollar declines.
The growing M2 money supply has also been cited by analysts as a potential driver of a Bitcoin surge. Major Bitcoin bull runs have historically accompanied M2 expansions, and analysts anticipate a spike in late March as liquidity circumstances improve.
Because of changes in policy and macroeconomic factors, uncertainty is quite considerable at the moment. But according to history, investors who position themselves wisely during tumultuous times frequently see large returns.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may launch a new bull cycle in the upcoming months if the 2017–2020 trend holds true. However, since short-term volatility is still a major feature of the present market environment, traders should continue to exercise caution.
Pi Network risks falling amid $480M Pi Coin unlock
Despite the huge $480 million Pi Coin unlock, market players maintained their confidence in light of the other encouraging events, even though Pi Network’s price is at risk of declining.
The price of Pi Network has dropped more than 8% today, and market observers are closely monitoring it. Notably, the retreat coincides with a wider decrease in the cryptocurrency market, where major drops have been seen in Bitcoin and other leading altcoins. Furthermore, as the huge Pi Coin unlock, valued at around $480 million, approaches, the mood deteriorates, raising questions about whether the impending spike might lead to additional drops.
Pi Network faces pressure: Major unlock looms
On March 17, a big Pi Coin unlock is scheduled, which has many worried about how it may affect the token’s value. The daily Pi unlock presently averages 8.94 million coins, or around $17.89 million, according to blockchain tracker Piscan.io. The unlocked value will, however, rise to 23.13 million Pi, or about $46.27 million, on March 17.
Notably, a large increase in token supply might push prices down by flooding the market. Furthermore, an estimated $478.79 million, or 268.48 million Pi Coins, will be unlocked over the course of the following 30 days. Investors are nevertheless cautious about any selling pressure that might further affect the price because of the large flood of supplies.
Users may now follow Pi unlocks throughout the course of the next 30 days thanks to a new tool that Piscan.io has added. Whether user-locked or provided by the Pi Core Team, the tracker offers information on claimable funds.
Nevertheless, unpublished Pi networks that are not yet in claimable balances are not tracked by it. The site advised investors to keep a careful eye on developments and be informed on unlock trends.
Can Pi Day announcements revive market sentiment?
As Pi Day (March 14) draws near, the Pi Network community maintains their optimism in spite of mounting worries. Major news on Pi’s ecosystem development and possible exchange listings are eagerly awaited by many investors.
Given Pi Coin’s increasing usefulness and gaining traction, a few of analysts predict that Binance may list it shortly. Pi has reached a significant milestone by gaining 4 million X fans. This illustrates the project’s increasing popularity among market players, which may help allay worries about the impending token unlock.
Furthermore, suspicion has been further stoked by Binance’s recent actions. Binance stated in an X post, “Dreams come true… but only if you make it through the “task” phase. “Start with a piece, work hard, and earn the whole pie!” Binance Wallet introduced in the meantime.
Many members of the Pi community have conjectured that an exchange listing may be imminent as a result of these cryptic signals. The Times of PiNetwork, a Pi Coin enthusiast, noted that Binance had previously polled people on Pi’s listing, and 86% of them were in favor of it. Concurrently, a leading analyst recently stated that, considering Pi’s practical application and expanding user base, Binance and other leading exchanges are probably going to list it.
Market outlook: Can Pi sustain its momentum?
The Pi community is nonetheless hopeful despite supply concerns raised by the impending unlock because of other encouraging market developments. Pi Network may be able to reverse the selling pressure and generate new momentum if it releases noteworthy upgrades on Pi Day.
However, speculation might not be sufficient to propel a long-term rebound without formal confirmation from Binance or other significant exchanges. Investors need to brace themselves for possible turbulence as March 17 draws closer.
Its one-day volume fell 31% to $541 million, while the Pi value was down more than 8% today and traded at $1.77. Notably, throughout the last day, the cryptocurrency has fluctuated between $2 and $1.75.
21Shares moves forward with Polkadot ETF filing as DOT holds the $4 support
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has received 21Shares’ revised S-1 application for the spot Polkadot exchange-traded fund. The original application was filed more than a month ago.
The SEC has received an amended version of 21Shares’ March 6 S-1 application for the spot Polkadot (DOT) ETF. On January 31, a crypto asset manager filed an S-1 registration statement for a spot Polkadot ETF with the SEC. An amended version of that original application was submitted in March, either in response to SEC criticism or to include more details.
In the filing, 21Shares joins Grayscale, which on February 25 submitted a request to the SEC to market a spot Polkadot ETF on Nasdaq.
Grayscale and 21Shares’ Polkadot ETF applications follow a larger pattern in which asset managers are requesting more SEC permission for cryptocurrency ETFs. Additionally, 21Shares has submitted applications for ETFs that target Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP). Regarding its current products, 21Shares provides a variety of exchange-traded products in addition to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs.
On the weekly chart, the price of DOT seems to have created a falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish reversal setup with lower highs and lower lows convergent into a shrinking range. Stated differently, the rate of decrease is reducing since the gap between highs and lows is getting smaller. This implies that sellers are slowing down, and a breakthrough may be on the horizon. The wedge breakthrough would be confirmed if DOT broke above the $10 local resistance zone. If the key support level, which is about $4, is crossed, the pattern will be deemed invalid and DOT may return to the last significant support level, which was $3.60. DOT is trading at about $4.5 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour volume of more over $255 million.
The launch of Polkadot 2.0 in Q1 of this year, a significant planned upgrade to the Polkadot network intended to improve its scalability and developer accessibility, may help DOT’s price in addition to the SEC’s possible approval of Polkadot ETF. Before the official release, developers and consumers may test and comment on the new features using an early testnet version that is already accessible on the Kusama network.
Also read: WILL DOT REACH $1,000 BY 2030?
