An analyst estimates that following the halving, bitcoin miner sales might total up to $5 billion over the course of four to six months.
A market expert believes that, similar to past cycles, there may be a significant withdrawal of Bitcoin (BTC) from miners in the months after the halving.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, calculated that following the halving, bitcoin miners would be able to sell $5 billion worth of BTC in an analyst note April 13.
“The overhang from this selling could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months – as it has done following past halvings,” he added.
According to Thielen, the same may occur once more, with cryptocurrency markets perhaps seeing “a significant challenge in a six-month summer’ lull.”
Within the $9,000 to $11,500 band, bitcoin values were stable in the five months that followed the 2020 halving.
This year, the halving is scheduled on April 20, which is only six days away. If history repeats itself, markets could not see a notable upward trend until about October.
Furthermore, he said that prior to the halving, miners frequently accumulate Bitcoin, “Leading to a supply/demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in Bitcoin prices.”
This has already happened, as the price of bitcoin increased by 74% in 2024 to an all-time high of $73,734 on March 14 before falling to less than $63,000 in the middle of April.
Additionally, Thielen believes that cryptocurrencies in particular could suffer the most from this circumstance. Over the last week, several of them have been sharply declining, and many are still far from reaching their 2021 high.
“Even if there is a correlation between the halving and an altcoin rally, as some predict, historical evidence shows that the rally typically begins almost six months later.”
Marathon, the biggest Bitcoin miner in the world, presumably amassed an inventory “that will likely be gradually sold after the halving to prevent a revenue cliff from occurring,” according to Thielen’s theory.
Given that Marathon (now) generates 28–30 BTC daily, this might mean that, in addition to the BTC they produce—which would be 14–15 BTC per day following the halving—133 days of extra supply would reach the market.
“Other miners will likely follow a similar strategy to liquidate part of their inventory gradually.”
The study came to the conclusion that “this could result in a maximum of $104 million of BTC selling per day – reversing the supply/demand imbalance that caused BTC to rally pre-halving” if all miners employ a similar plan to sell inventory after the halving.
The CEO of Marathon, Peter Thiel, stated last week that the company needs to break even at about $46,000 per Bitcoin in order to continue making money after the halving. He also predicted that there won’t likely be any notable price changes in the six months that follow the event.
With gains of 18% and new ATH, Toncoin (TON) surpasses Dogecoin (DOGE)
Technical signs continue to point to strength in the Toncoin price increase, which is expected to push the token up to $10 by the end of the month. The RSI is pointing upward.
The native cryptocurrency of Toncoin, TON, swiftly recovered despite the wider market volatility, rising 18% and reaching a new all-time high of $7.0. After a recent upswing, Toncoin’s market capitalization has surpassed Dogecoin (DOGE) to become the eighth-largest cryptocurrency, with a value of almost $24 billion. The relationship between Toncoin and HasKey is another factor contributing to the current price spike.
TON price rises to $10
Since March, the price of Toncoin has been relatively stable, attracting the interest of analysts who see it as one of the coins to keep a careful eye on in the next days and weeks. In comparison, Toncoin has increased by around 35% in the previous week and a whopping 136% in the last month.
Amazingly, since the beginning of March, its value has increased by more than 180%. Furthermore, during the past week, Toncoin’s trading volume has increased significantly, averaging a daily gain of over 300%.
The ascending channel pattern on the technical chart indicates that bulls have persisted in buying the dips as the price of Toncoin has been rising.
The price was able to move below the channel on April 12 and 13, but the candlesticks’ lengthy tails show that there was strong purchasing activity close to the support line. The failure to sustain lower levels probably attracted buyers, who are now attempting to push the price in the direction of the resistance line at $7.50, a breach of which may lead to a further advance to $10.
The RSI is still in the positive zone and both moving averages are going higher, suggesting that buyers are in the lead right now. This bullish prediction, nonetheless, may be refuted if the TON/USDT pair has a severe dip and closes below the support line. Under such circumstances, there may be a drop in price near the 50-day SMA ($4.28).
Key developments in the ecosystem
The messaging service Telegram is planning to become public, and there are rumors of an IPO soon. This is the main reason for the recent spike in the price of Toncoin. The CEO of Telegram, Pavel Durov, disclosed last month (March 2024) that the firm has received $30 billion in proposals.
Telegram also intends to start running ads in the app’s channel and pay Toncoin rewards to the channel owners. Advertisers may allocate their money and choose where their ads are placed with complete control when using TON-based ads.
Uniswap raises trading fees to 0.25% in response to SEC concerns
Amid SEC examination, Uniswap increases trading costs to increase its legal fund. Customers may look for other interfaces with less costs.
Renowned decentralized exchange Uniswap has disclosed that it is raising its trading costs. The bulk of swaps will now carry a 0.25% cost instead of the prior 0.15%. This move is a result of any legal concerns BitClout may have with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Long-term finance for continuing initiatives and possible legal expenses is the goal of the increase.
There are certain exceptions, even if some transactions have increased in cost. These are WETH wraps and unwraps or stablecoin-to-stablecoin exchanges of the same underlying assets. Though costs will still apply for transactions conducted on the mainnet and compatible Layer 2 networks, users can choose to avoid the higher fees by using other interfaces.
Uniswap modifies fees to increase legal fund
The decision to raise costs is in accordance with the SEC’s Wells notice, which indicates potential enforcement proceedings. Market watchers concluded that Uniswap was taking this measure as a deliberate move to strengthen its financial reserves. Suspicion of a lawsuit makes solid finance crucial. The system recognizes the operational and budgetary challenges posed by regulatory body lawsuits.
According to Blockwork Research analyst Dan Smith, the increasing interface cost is intended to support Uniswap Labs. These donations help with legal fees and product development. Smith acknowledges that some of these services may charge fees, but he advises customers to consider using an aggregator that has reduced rates.
The DeFi sector anticipates more stringent regulatory oversight
The platform’s commitment to the ideals of the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry is demonstrated by Uniswap’s resolve to defend any SEC litigation. Potential costs are demonstrated by past cases like Ripple, which invested over $200 million to defend itself against an SEC lawsuit.
The business stated that it intended to generate funds for its defense and boost trading volume with the fee profits. This is similar to a broader industry trend where platforms strengthen their finances to get around complex regulations.
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