As speculation mounts that the Fed will lower interest rates as inflation declines, the price of bitcoin is aiming for a surge to the peak of $113,913.
Over the past six days, Bitcoin (BTC) has remained relatively stable in value, fluctuating between $107,000 and $110,000. However, with the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 30, 2025, and the Fed minutes being released on Wednesday, this could change this month. How would the price of Bitcoin change if the Fed were to cut interest rates later this month when inflation falls below 2%?
Will the Federal Reserve trim interest rates in July?
95% of investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will not alter interest rates at its July 30 meeting, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. This is because the US economy created 147,000 new jobs in June, according to a report on the country’s labor market performance that was released last week.
The price of bitcoin may have already taken into account the likelihood that interest rates won’t change this month. There is, however, discussion over whether US inflation will decline, which could influence investor sentiment and prompt the Fed to adjust interest rates.
The Truflation US Inflation Index, which fell from 2.27% to 1.70% in less than two weeks, is the source of this conjecture. The reduction occurred just before the July 15 release of the CPI data.
The price of Bitcoin may benefit if the inflation data in the following week confirms this trend, as it will raise the possibility that the interest rate will fall.
On July 9, the Fed will also release the minutes from its May meeting. To find out how Fed officials feel about inflation, the market is awaiting the report. The price of Bitcoin may begin to rise again if the report indicates that the authorities are no longer worried about inflation.
However, there is almost no likelihood that the interest rate will move this month, even if consumer prices decline and the Fed minutes show a favorable reading. Rather, September is when 61% of investors anticipate the first rate change, which would be a 25% decrease.
Bitcoin price targets all-time high if Fed lowers rates
The price of Bitcoin may rise sharply to all-time highs if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates this month, as most traders are not currently factoring in the probability of this happening.
If this occurs, the four-hour chart’s bullish pattern indicates that the next all-time high will probably be at $113,913. Depending on whether the price falls below the support level or overcomes resistance, this pattern typically indicates that a gain or crash is imminent.
If the price of Bitcoin rises above the resistance level of $108,547, the pennant’s bullish price projection suggests that a 4.95% surge may be imminent. This could push the price of the largest cryptocurrency asset to a new high of $113,913.
Given that the RSI is above 51, indicating that the current trend is bullish and that there is potential for more increases for Bitcoin, buyers may be the primary driver of this rally. Bearish traders are losing control, as evidenced by the AO bars that have gone green despite still being negative.
In conclusion, the price of Bitcoin might reach a new all-time high by the end of July if the Fed lowers interest rates due to a decline in inflation when it releases consumer pricing data next week. However, the price may continue to suffer due to uncertainty if it doesn’t occur and there are no other favorable factors to support rises.
Ethereum (ETH) is rising; but on-chain indicators say $5,000 can wait
The discussion about a return to $5,000 is gathering traction, even if the price of Ethereum is currently trading close to $2,540, up 3.57% week over week.
However, the volume and on-chain indicators aren’t exactly giving out freebies. In November 2021, the price of ETH reached its highest point ever, $4,891. Almost four years later, a number of indicators point to the next step up not being as close as bulls anticipate.
Developer activity no longer supports the $5,000 hype
The biggest warning sign right away? development work.
According to Sentiment data, Ethereum’s developer contributions, as measured by the quantity of code changes and updates made through key repositories, have decreased from 71 to slightly over 25 since mid-May.
Even though the price has been rising steadily, that represents an almost 65% drop in raw developer involvement. This discrepancy frequently indicates that on-chain expansion and fundamental protocol innovation are trailing the market craze. The caution is also supported by the fact that a similar surge in development activity in December 2024 did not spark a price rally.
Ethereum’s foundation layer will restrict long-term price justification and cast doubt on the $5,000 optimism in the near term if it isn’t changing rapidly.
HODL Waves signal erosion in long-term confidence
Another concerning pattern can be seen in HODL Waves, which classify wallet holdings according to holding time. Even during recent price surges, the proportion of ETH held in long-term addresses—those with a holding period of six months or longer—has declined.
The 1-month to 6-month holding bands currently include the majority of ETH, indicating more recent hands and possible swing traders. In contrast to other price breakouts where waves were dominated by 1Y+ cohorts, this structure shows softer confidence, suggesting that many ETH holders would leave the market if resistance is rejected.
CMF confirms smart money is sitting out
With Ethereum’s run from $1,300 to $2,700 in April and May, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a statistic used to track volume-weighted accumulation, experienced a brief spike before flattening down. It has since had difficulty rising above 0.10, indicating a lull in significant purchasing demand.
Price structure still faces tough resistance
At $2,647, Ethereum is presently stuck below important barrier. The $2,491 and $2,467 levels provide support if momentum continues to wane. The price may move toward $2,376 if it breaks below $2,467.
On-Balance Volume (OBV), which modifies volume in response to price direction, has been trapped in a small range, somewhat less than -2.12 million. It is questionable whether present levels, let alone $5,000, have the structural strength to hold given the lack of significant volume engagement from whales (not one-off deals) and large wallets.
The $2,861 level will probably serve as a solid rejection zone if there are no compelling OBV or CMF readings to support a breakthrough. $5,000 then seems more like a psychological headline than a realistic next destination.
However, the negative view might be disproved if Ethereum flips $2,647 into support, a level that is clearly apparent on the current chart. And it would set up the price of ETH to rise above $2,800. But if combined with more developer activity and a more robust CMF comeback, the bearish invalidation would suggest fresh impetus.
Breaking: Donald Trump Truth social files for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, CRO ETF
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Cronos are among the coins that will be included in the crypto blue chip ETF that Donald Trump’s Truth Social has applied for.
With its application for a multi-crypto asset fund, Donald Trump’s Truth Social has advanced farther into the cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund market. This fund will be weighted according on the market capitalizations of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Cronos.
Trump’s Truth social files for multi-asset ETF
Trump’s Truth Social has applied for a “Crypto Blue Chip ETF,” according to an SEC filing. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Cronos will make up the majority of the fund, which will be held by a custodian on behalf of the Trust.
According to their respective values, the Trust’s asset allocation to the portfolio would be roughly 70% Bitcoin, 15% Ethereum, 8% Solana, 5% Cronos, and 2% XRP. Institutional investors will be exposed to these cryptocurrency assets through the Truth Social Crypto Blue Chip ETF, which aims to track the assets’ performance.
Additionally, the filing said that Foris DAX Trust Company will serve as the custodian of the Trust’s portfolio asset holdings, while Yorkville America Digital will serve as the Trust’s sponsor. Details regarding the fund’s fee schedule were not included in the filing.
In the meanwhile, this represents another step forward for the president’s organization in the cryptocurrency industry. The business has already applied for a Dual Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF, as research.
The firm must still submit a 19b-4 filing through an exchange; this submission is merely a registration statement. This 19b-4 for the Truth Social Crypto Blue Chip ETF is anticipated to be filed by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). According to the registration, the fund’s shares will be traded on the exchange.
Notably, according to CoinMarketCap data, the price of Cronos increased by more than 3% after the file was made public. Additionally, CRO has increased by more than 12% in the past day. There were just slight increases in the values of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.
