Ethereum and Bitcoin options worth $5.26 billion expire today, therefore traders and investors in the cryptocurrency market can expect turbulence.
In particular, the notional value of Bitcoin (BTC) options that are about to expire is $4.25 billion, whilst Ethereum (ETH) options are at $1.01 billion. Markets are now waiting to see how the expiration of such large contracts will affect them.
What $5B Bitcoin, Ethereum options expiry means
Deribit data indicates that 62,657 Bitcoin options contracts with a put-to-call ratio of 0.66 and a maximum pain point of $64,000 will expire on October 25.
At the same moment, 403,426 contracts on Ethereum’s options market are scheduled to expire. The put-to-call ratio for Ethereum contracts that are expiring today is 0.97, and the maximum pain point is $2,600.
In options trading, the put-to-call ratio is a crucial mood indicator. The volume of put and call options exchanged is contrasted. More investors are anticipating market gains when this score is below 1, which often indicates positive sentiment. Conversely, a ratio greater than one frequently indicates pessimism and worries about a market downturn.
As of this writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,490, while Bitcoin is trading at $67,962, according to data. This indicates that Ethereum is trading below its maximum paint point while Bitcoin is trading above it.
Price implication based on Max Point theory
Given that the price of Bitcoin is now over its maximum pain threshold, options contract holders would typically experience losses if the options expired at the current level. Ethereum, on the other hand, is below its strike price, which is advantageous for option holders. The Max Pain hypothesis underpins this, stating that the pricing of options will tend to converge around the strike prices at which the greatest amount of contracts, both puts and calls, expire worthless.
Consequently, it implies that the values of Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to approach their respective maximum pain points as the options contracts approach expiration. This implies that in a premeditated move by smart money, the value of Bitcoin may decrease while the price of Ethereum may increase. However, after 8:00 UTC on Friday, when Deribit settles the contracts, the pressure on the values of Bitcoin and Ethereum will lessen.
It’s also important to note that there are a lot more Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today than there were earlier in the month. The trade week ending October 4 saw BeInCrypto report $1.4 billion, and the week ending October 11 saw $1.6 billion.
Then, up to $1.62 billion in option contracts expired in the week ending October 18. With a consistent upward trend, the jump to over $5 billion options expiring is noteworthy. A significant shift in implied volatility (IV) is also present ahead of the US elections, according to experts at BloFin Academy.
1. The change in implied volatility first reflects the election’s impact on the expected volatility of the crypto market. Whether it is BTC or ETH options, the implied volatility level of options expiring on Nov 8 has increased significantly and exceeded that of far-month… pic.twitter.com/Rd0R7It2ru
— BloFin Academy (@BloFin_Academy) October 24, 2024
They attribute the shift in IV to the speculative and hedging demands of investors. Additionally, the experts note comparatively greater rises in Bitcoin’s “election day option.” This indicates that Bitcoin is comparatively more susceptible to significant occurrences. However, for the time being, the majority of investors are staying out of the market, which limits the level of volatility that can be anticipated in October.
2. Interestingly, investors seem to believe that there will not be much volatility in the rest of October. As most investors are on the sidelines before the election, the performance of the crypto market is mainly consolidation, which also boosts investors’ confidence in pricing… pic.twitter.com/oogYbqbgoC
— BloFin Academy (@BloFin_Academy) October 24, 2024
The experts also cite the US Federal Reserve’s policy uncertainty as a contributing factor.
Dogecoin creator Billy Markus defends Elon Musk, criticizes media
Co-founder of Dogecoin Billy Markus continues to back Donald Trump’s campaign for the US election while defending Elon Musk against media disinformation.
Co-founder of Dogecoin Billy Markus has spoken his opinions about Elon Musk, supporting the Tesla CEO against what he sees as skewed media portrayals. In a series of tweets, Markus—who goes by the online handle “Shibetoshi Nakamoto”—claimed that Musk is among the most open public people.
Furthermore, Shibetoshi claimed that many people’s perceptions of Elon Musk are influenced by media manipulation. Markus contends that the “Elon Musk bad” narrative has been skewed by individuals with ulterior motives. The Dogecoin enthusiast is continuing to support Donald Trump in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as seen by these remarks.
Elon Musk continues Trump endorsement as Dogecoin creator defends him
Billy Markus, a co-founder of Dogecoin, claimed in a post on X that the public’s opinion of Elon Musk has been misrepresented by the media. According to Markus, people in charge of the media narrative frequently misrepresent Elon and turn his openness against him.
“Yeah, I try to be as literal as possible,” the Tesla CEO replied in response to the DOGE co-founder. Billy Markus, however, reaffirmed his position by responding,
“It makes you an easy target for the spin machine just cuz you give them a lot of content to work with but it feels so lazy and banal of them”
Musk will continue to receive more media attention as he gets more involved in Donald Trump’s campaign. Musk is reportedly planning to hold two town hall meetings this week. One will be conducted over the phone on October 25, 2024, and another in person in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, on October 26, 2024, according to America PAC, which was established by the CEO of SpaceX.
ANNOUNCEMENT: Two New Town Halls with Elon Musk tomorrow and Saturday at 7pm ET
Sign up & More info here: https://t.co/15Kx9YwzSL pic.twitter.com/dVWvKCklJ4
— America (@america) October 24, 2024
Musk is likely to talk about cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and XRP during these events. Musk brought up XRP during a recent rally, emphasizing how cryptocurrency by its very nature encourages individual liberty.
Tesla Bitcoin holdings remain intact
Along with his political activity, Elon Musk’s business, Tesla, has revealed that it still has 11,509 Bitcoin, which is worth around $765 million. Tesla explained that these were wallet rotations for security reasons following rumors of a string of wallet transfers. Strong growth was also noted in the company’s Q3 2024 financial report, which showed no sales of its Bitcoin holdings.
In the meanwhile, Musk’s America PAC received a warning from the DOJ for its contentious petition campaign that offered a $1 million day reward to encourage voter registration. Critics have questioned the legality of such measures, drawing attention to this endeavor.
Billy Markus, a co-founder of Dogecoin, has defended Elon Musk, while others, like Mark Cuban, have criticized him for allegedly taking over Donald Trump’s campaign. In addition, Cuban questioned if Musk’s $1 million donation to Trump’s campaign was lawful.
Telegram-linked Notcoin (NOT) may revisit its all-time low
Recently, the purchasing momentum for Notcoin (NOT), which is tied to Telegram, has decreased. With its current price of $0.0076, the cryptocurrency has dropped 3% in the last week.
Technical and on-chain indications point to the possibility that the token’s decline may continue. Here’s why.
Notcoin poised to extend downtrend
Large holders, sometimes known as whales, have been cutting back on their NOT holdings during the last seven days. The netflow of Notcoin’s major holders has decreased by 101% in the last week, which reflects this.
Addresses that own more than 0.1% of the circulating supply of an asset are considered large holders. An asset’s net accumulation or distribution by significant holders is monitored using the netflow statistic. Whale addresses are selling off their holdings when the large holder netflow of an asset declines.
Increasing selling pressure and a higher chance of a price decline are indicated by this bearish indicator. Additionally, it frequently undermines the trust of regular investors who see significant holders selling off huge quantities of an asset, which leads them to sell and speeds up the price decrease.
Furthermore, short-term holders (STHs) of Notcoin, or those who have held their tokens for less than 30 days, have reduced the amount of time they have kept them during the previous month. A decrease in holding time usually means that investors are selling the item faster than they were previously.
STHs are in a particularly vulnerable position since they own a sizable amount of the asset’s circulating supply. As a result, they significantly depress the value of the asset when they sell their coins and reduce their holding periods.
NOT price prediction: All-time low in view
Right now, Notcoin (NOT) is trading at $0.0076, which is just above the $0.0069 support level. NOT bulls could find it difficult to hold this support as selloffs get up steam. If they are unable to do so, NOT’s all-time low of $0.0010, which was last observed on May 16, may be the next price target.
The gloomy perspective stated above might be dispelled, though, if the Notcoin sees a rebound in demand and breaks out of this support level to begin an upward trend toward $0.012.
