Greetings and welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing, your indispensable summary of the day’s key crypto news.
Get a cup of coffee because the coming days may mark a turning point in Wall Street and Bitcoin history. The biggest corporate Bitcoin holder, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), is only a quarter away from becoming a part of the S&P 500. The hitch is that everything depends on Bitcoin being above a crucial support level, yet anything may happen quickly in the cryptocurrency space.
Crypto news of the day: MicroStrategy inches toward S&P 500 – But it all depends on Bitcoin
One of the most prestigious milestones in US markets is about to be reached by Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), a publicly traded company led by Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor: membership in the S&P 500.
There’s a caveat, though: before June 30, Bitcoin cannot fall more than 10%. Given the S&P 500 listing requirements, MicroStrategy may forfeit this opportunity if it does.
91% chance of $MSTR qualifying for S&P in 6 days https://t.co/uGkzAuTQ2Y
— Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) June 24, 2025
The pioneer cryptocurrency is currently trading for $107,119, up over 2% over the past day.
“Strategy has a 91% chance of qualifying for inclusion in the S&P 500, provided Bitcoin’s price does not fall more than 10% before June 30,” Walton stated.
Walton set $95,240 as the crucial support level, which is the lowest price of Bitcoin required to maintain Strategy’s quarterly profits in the positive range.
Walton set $95,240 as the crucial support level, which is the lowest price of Bitcoin required to maintain Strategy’s quarterly profits in the positive range.
Walton’s odds model is predicated on past Bitcoin trends. Bitcoin has dropped more than 10% just 343 times (8.7% of the time) in more than 3,900 six-day periods since September 2014.
Walton claims that the longer we go without a drop, the worse the chances get, based on this track record of success.
“If only two days remain in the quarter, for instance, the chance of a 10% fall drops to 4.2%,” he explained.
After Coinbase’s historic entry in May, Strategy would become the second crypto-related company to join the S&P 500 in 2025 if it were to succeed.
In December 2024, it was also included in the Nasdaq-100, indicating that traditional finance is beginning to welcome Bitcoin-focused companies (TradFi).
The Q2 figure, which is mostly determined by the fair market value of its 592,345 BTC holdings, will make or break Strategy’s bid, which has reported losses for the last three quarters.
The atmosphere has been strained due to recent volatility in Bitcoin. Due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 over the weekend, endangering Strategy’s position.
MicroStrategy’s new accounting standards
The implementation of new accounting rules (ASU 2023-08) has been a major boon to strategy.
In bull markets, the approach significantly improves the company’s profitability profile by reflecting unrealized Bitcoin gains and losses in net income.
“On January 1, 2025, the Company adopted ASU 2023-08 which requires that bitcoin holdings are remeasured at fair value with gains and losses from change in the fair value of bitcoin recognized in net income (loss) at each reporting period,” Strategy stated in a recent press release.
In addition to the ASU 2023-08, MicroStrategy has also developed the Bitcoin credit model, which uses variables like loan duration and Bitcoin price fluctuation to determine credit risk.
Saylor’s support for this technology was recently featured in a US Crypto News article. The US Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) director, Bill Pulte, is thinking of qualifying for a mortgage in the US by using cryptocurrency holdings.
Could Strategy one day top the global charts?
Walton has presented an even more ambitious view than just being included in the S&P 500.
“Strategy may one day rise to become the top publicly traded company in the world,” he said in a Financial Times documentary on MicroStrategy in May.
His logic? The business’s exclusive, leveraged exposure to “the best asset and most pristine collateral on the planet,” as he put it.
“Strategy holds more of the best asset and most pristine collateral on the planet than any other company, by multiples,” Walton articulated.
The company is still doubling down on its approach. As previously documented, Saylor followed a well-known pattern of cryptic posts in which she alluded to another possible Bitcoin purchase by Strategy.
$21 million in 21 years
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) June 21, 2025
Strategy might be eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 if Bitcoin stays steady until the end of the quarter. Reaching this milestone will solidify its position as the corporate spokesperson for the financial revolution brought forth by Bitcoin.
Coinbase stock hits 4-year high as Bernstein raises COIN target to $510
The stock of Coinbase has surged to $360 despite Bernstein’s prediction that it would hit $510, referring to the cryptocurrency as “misunderstood.”
After rising more than 3% during today’s trading session and surpassing its 4-year high of $357, Coinbase’s stock now has an optimistic outlook. This coincides with Bernstein’s assessment that the cryptocurrency stock is the “most misunderstood” and his prediction that it might rise as high as $510.
Coinbase stock rallies above $360
According to TradingView statistics, Coinbase’s shares struck a fresh 4-year high during today’s trading session, rising as high as $368. The stock is up more than 37% year-to-date (YTD) and more than 3% over the past day.
Bernstein increased its target price for COIN from $310 to $510 at the same time that the stock price surged. The financial firm’s research experts also kept their “outperform” rating for the leading cryptocurrency exchange, calling it the “most misunderstood” in their coverage of the market.
These experts pointed out that Coinbase is the sole cryptocurrency business in the S&P 500, which may be the catalyst for the stock’s surge to $510. In addition, it controls the biggest stablecoin industry among exchanges and controls the US cryptocurrency trading sector.
Bernstein pointed out that 15% of overall revenue comes from the stablecoin industry, which is now merging with Shopify and other platforms. Coinbase has launched its payment service, allowing retailers to accept payments using the USDC stablecoin, as reported.
Other catalysts for the exchange’s projected growth
The fact that the exchange controls institutional cryptocurrency and serves as the custodian for eight Bitcoin ETF issuers was also cited by Bernstein analysts as a potential catalyst for the Coinbase stock climb to this $510 objective.
The exchange’s acquisition of the cryptocurrency options platform Deribit and its role in the Ethereum ecosystem as the operator of Base, the “largest and fastest” layer-2 network at the moment, are examples of causes that are driving these growth expectations, according to the research.
According to the article, JP Morgan, the biggest bank in the United States, intends to start the trial program for its JPMD coin on Base. This might increase Coinbase’s momentum and draw more attention to the Base ecosystem.
The GENIUS Act and the soon-to-be CLARITY Act will also help the cryptocurrency exchange, according to Bernstein analysts. The stablecoin law, just passed by the US Senate, will provide cryptocurrency firms like Coinbase clarification.
Berstein is still quite optimistic about Coinbase’s stock and believes it will eventually rise to $510, even though there is a “bearish consensus” on the “largest crypto universal bank” in relation to the cryptocurrency exchange.
Starknet-based L2 protocol zkLend shuts down
The Starknet-based decentralized money lending protocol zkLend has declared that it is closing its doors.
The layer 2 money market lending protocol, built on the Starknet network, revealed the development on June 25, a few months after suffering a nearly $10 million hack.
What happened?
The February 12, 2025, exploit cost zkLend more over $9.5 million. According to the most recent update, the protocol appears to have not recovered from that attack, and the delisting of ZEND has made matters worse.
These two considerations play a major role in the decision to stop operations, according to the announcement the Starknet-based L2 posted on X.
“This decision was not made lightly,” zkLend posted. “Over recent months, the exploit we suffered has deeply eroded user confidence, and furthermore, the recent removal of ZEND from major exchanges such as Bybit and KuCoin has further constrained token liquidity and accessibility.”
These difficulties made it hard for zkLend to “effectively allocate toward any new initiatives.”
The protocol is now concentrating on user restitution as a result. The remaining $200,000 in treasury will go toward helping the affected users recover from the hack. The DeFi Spring, recuperation, and kSTRK portals are still available for claims and unstaking on zkLend.
Crypto hacks
The exploit used by zkLend is only one of several cryptocurrency hacks that have affected the market recently. Security analysts have observed a sharp rise in cryptocurrency thefts in the wake of huge breaches like the $1.4 billion Bybit attack. Attackers stole nearly $2.3 billion in more than 160 instances in 2024, which is 40% more than the $1.69 billion lost to various attacks the year before.
Smaller projects have frequently been crippled by exploits, causing native tokens to fall to almost zero in response to market reaction. A more than $220 million attack of the decentralized exchange platform Cetus has caused the Sui token to plummet.
Starknet’s native token also experienced downward pressure as a result of zkLend’s security issue. STRK is presently trading at about $0.11, down 84% over the last year and more than 28% over the last month.
