Last week was an extremely volatile week for the market. See the Weekly crypto market report 44th below
WEEK in REVIEW AROUND THE WORLD – Weekly crypto market report 44th
- Crypto market sentiment at highest point since Bitcoin’s $69k all-time high.
- Bitcoin market dominance hits 54%, highest in 2.5 years as the next halving event approaches.
- UK bill for seizing illicit crypto used in criminal activities finally becomes law.
- FTX trial: Sam Bankman-Fried testifies without jury present, claims FTX decisions were acted on legal advice, though “taking FTX deposits through Alameda was legal.”
- Taiwan introduces its crypto bill to Parliament.
- MicroStrategy’s massive 158,245 BTC stash now officially back in profit as price climbs above $30k.
- Binance seeks CFTC lawsuit dismissal, blasts commission for “trying to be world derivatives police.”
- SEC charges BlackRock with $2.5 million for incorrect investment disclosure.
- Mastercard partners with MoonPay to provide Web 3 payment services.
- “Magnificent seven” stocks plummet a whopping $280 billion as crypto surges – worst performance since start of COVID-19 pandemic.
- The US economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, defying recession expectations.
- The European Central Bank decides to keep current interest rates unchanged.
- Bank of Canada remains hawkish, seeing persistently high inflation.
Market Overview – Weekly crypto market report 44th
1.1 Bitcoin Overview
Following a mighty 28% ascension in the past two weeks, BTC’s action has calmed, with 34,000 acting as newly formed short-term support.
It brings BTC back into the long-term ascending channel, forming key longer-term support at 33,000.
From a technical perspective, there is an ‘angry head’ on the back of the move – a saying from the old FX prop desks, which basically suggests that now is a terrible time to be short.
Any positive catalyst here could lead to further gamma hedging, which we think extends the move higher.
1.2 Bitcoin Onchain
- Large whale groups are accumulating strongly, with the accumulation trend score reaching its highest point in the past year.
- Despite the significant price increase, stablecoin netflow indicates that not much money is being deposited into the exchange. Additionally, the stablecoin mint/burn index shows that a considerable amount of stablecoins have been burned in the last 3 months. Currently, this is not a positive sign for sustainable growth.
- Currently, mainly short-term trader groups are buying BTC from the price range of 25-26K, and those who bought BTC since November 2022 are taking profits. In addition, a small portion of BTC purchased in 2018 and 2019 is also being sold.
- Bitcoin Profitable Days – Small red dots have appeared as a sign that spring is approaching.
- The futures market on CME is getting active again, with a fairly balanced ratio of long/short orders.
- Reports from large funds: $326 million flowed into the market last week, the largest increase since July 2022, with $296 million flowing into $BTC.
- A table showing the schedule of FED meetings and interest rate predictions from now until December 18, 2024.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – Weekly crypto market report 44th
The Situation of Future Contracts on CME
After a long period of quiet, future contracts on CME are now lively again, with a nearly balanced long/short ratio, with 18,953 short orders slightly outnumbering the 18,061 long orders.
The Federal Reserve Meeting Schedule & Interest Rate Predictions Until 12/18/2024
The next meeting is tomorrow, on 1/11 (Wednesday), with a 98.3% prediction that the Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate at a high level, with no increase or decrease, staying between 5.25% to 5.5%.
Looking a bit further, it is predicted that this interest rate will be maintained until 5/1/2024, which means into the following summer. On 6/12/2024, interest rates are expected to begin decreasing. In the subsequent months, such as 9/18/2024, interest rates are projected to continue decreasing to a range of 4.75% to 5%. By December 2024, the interest rate is expected to be reduced to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%
This Week’s Event Schedule
At 1:30 AM on Thursday, we will receive information about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. There is a 98.3% prediction that the Fed will neither increase nor decrease the interest rate and will continue to maintain it at a level of 5.25% to 5.5%.
Additionally, we have data on initial jobless claims at 7:30 PM on Thursday and Nonfarm payrolls at 7:30 PM on Friday. There are also several other noteworthy news items to keep an eye on.
ONCHAIN DATA – Weekly crypto market report 44th
After a hot week with a more than 24% increase in $BTC, at the current moment, $BTC is trading around 33.4K to 34.9K, with a small trading range of only 5%. Most altcoins over the past week have shown quite impressive gains, ranging from 50% to 100% in value in just a short week. This is happening in favorable conditions when $BTC is moving sideways, and BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is showing signs of reversal.
A series of altcoins like $FET, $OCEAN, $AGIX, $RNDR have experienced strong increases of 50% or more, influenced by the OpenAI DevDay technology event. Additionally, low-cap coins such as $BLZ, $ARK, $STMX are also experiencing significant increases. However, caution is advised during this period when top coins remain stable, and low-cap coins soar, as the market often experiences significant corrections.
Leading the list this week is the stablecoin $USDC, with over $40 million $USDC deposited on various trading platforms. Binance and Coinbase are the primary platforms used by whales for these deposits. This is a relatively positive signal coming from smart money at the current price levels. However, what we need to pay attention to is the Netflow Stablecoin, whether smart money (or specifically large funds) is depositing more, or if the net outflow is dominant at the moment.
The question will be answered in the next section (Top Tokens with Significant Outflows in the Past Week).
Next on the list of inflows this week is $DYDX, with over $2.78 million $DYDX deposited, specifically by Wintermute Trading and Arca, onto the Binance trading platform.
This comes after the news that $DYDX successfully launched on the Cosmos network, utilizing the Cosmos SDK for its platform, marking a transition from Ethereum to Cosmos. The price of $DYDX has also risen from $1.8 to $2.6 following this release, and Wintermute, along with Arca, is gradually taking profit actions on this token.
Explore latest news here: FMCPAY insight