Weekly Crypto Market Report 48th 2023 FMCPAY

Last week was an extremely volatile week for the market. See the Weekly crypto market report 48th below.

WEEK in REVIEW AROUND THE WORLD

After CZ’s surprise resignation, Binance selects Richard Teng as CEO; the DoJ decides the former CEO poses a “unacceptable risk of flight” and must remain in the US.
Kraken faces allegations from the SEC for acting as an unlicensed exchange, combining client and business funds, and making payments to operators from an account that contained customer monies.
After a DoJ investigation, Tether has frozen $225 million in USDT that was allegedly connected to human trafficking.
Justin Sun reveals that Heco Chain and HTX were hacked for $100 million, but he promises to make up for any losses. HTX stops accepting deposits and withdrawals.
Genesis, an online lender, is suing Gemini to recoup $689 million in preferred transfers.
Bullish, a cryptocurrency exchange led by a former NYSE president, has bought CoinDesk.
In 2024, 100,000 people will be invited by South Korea to test its CBDC.
Richard Teng takes over as CEO of Binance after CZ’s sudden resignation; the DoJ says the former CEO poses a “unacceptable risk of flight” and must remain in the US.
Kraken is accused by the SEC of operating as an unlicensed exchange, combining client and corporate funds, and paying opex from a customer-funding account.
Amid an ongoing Department of Justice investigation, Tether has blocked $225 million in USDT purportedly associated with human trafficking.
As Justin Sun acknowledges that HTX and Heco Chain were hacked for $100 million, HTX stops accepting deposits and withdrawals. He also guarantees to make up for any losses.
Genesis, a cryptocurrency lender, is suing Gemini to get $689 million in preferred transactions back.
A cryptocurrency exchange led by a former president of the NYSE, Bullish, purchased CoinDesk.
In 2024, South Korea will extend an invitation to 100,000 people to test the CBDC.

Market Overview – Weekly crypto market report 48th

1.1 Bitcoin Overview

After the strong BTC pump since October 24th, BTC has been rising steadily within a narrowing channel for about 3-4 weeks. Over 3 billion in stablecoins have flowed into the market, causing many altcoins to double or triple in value.
Bitcoin is still on a short-term uptrend without clear signs of reversal. However, if after November 20th, BTC closes below 36k, the probability of a correction becomes quite high.
Investing involves probability, and we cannot accurately predict the future. But when BTC corrects, altcoins often experience severe exchange rate shocks and drop by 30-50%.
In the current situation, if BTC manages to reach the 38-40k range, there’s an 80% chance of retesting the 32kxxx range, a 50% chance of retesting 26-28k, a 30% chance of dropping below 24k, and a 10% chance of retesting 20k (if there’s extreme FUD or a severe economic downturn causing investors to sell excessively).
SELF-INVESTMENT PLAN UNTIL END OF 2024:
Never fear missing out or lack of opportunity, as we’ve seen constant new project listings. Most recently, Celestia (TIA) doubled in just 4 days. So, from now until 2025, there are numerous catching opportunities.

1.2 SPECIFIC TIMING FOR PURCHASE:

Before the April 2024 Halving, around 3-4 months. Estimated to be December 2023 – January 2024.
Post-Halving profit-taking wave, 1-2 months; macroeconomic instability (policy changes, economic downturn): Estimated June 2024.
Before the US Presidential election: Estimated early November 2024.

Each week like a broken record I find myself talking about the VIX being so very low, and each week after that it seems to find another leg down. The Dec FOMC meeting has priced in a certain hold on rates, which is helping to keep volatility low. But again I question whether total complacency has set in – from a geopolitical (Israel unrest) and macro (rate cuts next year?) perspective. Any deviation from goldilocks scenarios could lead to this sucker blasting higher, particularly if unexpected newsflow hits over the lower liquidity December period.
BTC played back into the range as expected, but unexpectedly we shot straight back above 38,000 taking out stops before resting below the figure. The ascending triangle is starting to squeeze price, and from here I must admit a break higher could be on the cards if the VIX stays depressed. Ultimately I’m still betting that we see a range-bound environment below 38,000 in December, but the rest of the office is already calling for me to buy beer on the bet. Time will tell!

About Binance – Weekly crypto market report 48th

After co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) admitted guilt to breaking the Bank Secrecy Act and resigned as CEO, Binance saw a significant spike in withdrawals. Wednesday’s 24-hour withdrawals exceeded $1 billion, making the net outflow over the previous seven days total $1.784 billion.
A massive $4.3 billion fine is scheduled to be paid by Binance. One of the biggest fines the US government has ever levied on a financial company was handed down. The list of violations includes failing to register U.S.-based firms with regulators, intentionally doing business with criminals, and not providing enough information about the genuine identities of consumers.
Notably, the DOJ asserts that countries under sanctions, such as Syria, Cuba, and Iran, received services inadvertently. Because of Binance’s predicament, other exchanges have profited. Over the past week, inflows of $280 million, $158 million, and $336 million have been made to OKX, Bybit, and Bitstamp, respectively.

Alternatives and Protocols – Weekly crypto market report 48th

Blast has disclosed that @PacmanBlur, the creator of Blur, is spearheading the endeavor to create a Layer 2 Optimistic rollup. With funding from Paradigm totaling $20 million, Blast hopes to provide customers with native yield for both Ethereum and stablecoins. Notably, Blast has made it possible for users to stake BLUR, which entitles them to a Blast Airdrop. 289 million BLUR have been staked as of right now. Blur’s funding rate saw a substantial drop following the news, with traders switching to a delta-neutral strategy (long Blur, short perps) on large centralised exchanges (CEXs). Blast’s mainnet launch is slated for February 2024; monitor this for anticipated volatility.

Source image: here

Derivatives – Weekly crypto market report 48th

There has been a consistent skew towards calls in longer-dated expiries (about 5–10 vol points) for derivatives on Bitcoin and Ethereum. With the BTC FWD vol at its peak in December and January, the market has about fully priced in an ETF announcement in January. After examining the gamma profile, AD Derivatives released an intriguing note in which they predicted that “a positive ETF news catalyst would likely move prices into the $42k – $43k price range.” Here, a distinct “air pocket” is seen. Although this makes sense technically, there are still about six weeks until the deadline of January 10 and a lot may happen in that time on either side. This Christmas is going to be eventful, it seems.

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