BTC is still sideways and the market is still gloomy. Let’s dive into the comprehensive weekly crypto market report of the 39th 2023 below.
- After last week’s pressure with information about the Fed and Binance meetings, this week the price of BTC did not fluctuate too much. BTC is still sideways in the price range of 25k2-27k5
- Regarding the chart, Bitcoin has seen a price drop from 27k2 to 26k2. This price range has resulted in a significant number of call and put options being opened and neither side has much profit, so there are not many surprises in terms of widespread liquidation.
- In terms of cycles, Bitcoin tends to experience significant volatility after moving sideways for about 60-90 days. Currently, compared to the peak in July, Bitcoin has corrected for 70 days. Therefore, it is expected that Bitcoin may recover in October after next week.
In the coming week, investors should still pay attention to major news events. If the market experiences a dump, it could present an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin.
- Last week was still a gloomy week for Altcoin. Most altcoins follow Bitcoin’s trend, experiencing both recoveries and declines.
- Among the top coins last week, Link was notable. In the last 2 weeks, Chainlink has increased in price by 25% from the bottom.
Review articles about onchain Link at Here
- It is important to choose projects that have a solid fundamental foundation and are developing well during this period. These projects should have a low market cap and the chart shows consolidation rather than trying to catch falling knives that can be manipulated by various market participants such as market makers (MMs), whales, new investors or project teams.
1.3 Unlock Vesting
Next week’s unlock schedule: The most notable is OP, which will unlock 3% of the circulating supply, equivalent to approximately $31 million, on September 30.
Another significant token unlock in relation to market capitalization is GT, which will unlock 4.85% of the circulating supply, approximately worth $25.8 million, on September 30
Another token with a substantial unlock volume:
WLD: $35m ~ 17.4% of Cir. supply
UNI : $6.75m ~ 0.4% of Cir. supply
FIL : $11,66m ~ 0.8% of Cir. supply
SOL : $11m ~ 0.1% of Cir. supply
Current size of the crypto market
Investors and traders often use historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, the overall index NWST1100 has increased by 0.90% over the last week, indicating a modest positive performance in the broader cryptocurrency market. The chart below highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), Large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). A retrospective view over the last thirty days indicates that Tokens represented by the NWSET100 index have shown the most promising performance, with an increase of 1.48%.
These comparisons provide insights into the relative performance of digital assets and traditional stocks over different periods.
This comparison provides insights into the performance differences between digital assets (coins, tokens) and traditional stock. The NWST1100 represents digital assets, while the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index represents traditional stocks. Let’s break down the key observations and implications:
Historical Performance Comparison:
- 22 Months Ago: Digital assets, represented by the NWST1100 index, were outperforming traditional stocks, represented by the W1Dow index, with a record high quotient between the two indexes. This suggests that investing in digital assets was more profitable during that period compared to traditional stocks.
- 12 Months Ago: However, over the past 12 months, digital assets have lagged behind traditional stocks by 5.2%. This indicates that traditional stocks have delivered better returns than digital assets during this specific time frame.
Recent Shift in Performance:
- In the current year, there has been a noticeable shift in performance, with digital assets outperforming traditional stocks by a margin of 18.4%. This suggests a potential resurgence in the performance of digital assets and a change in investor sentiment toward the cryptocurrency market.
Mean Reversion Opportunity:
- The chart includes a blue dashed curve representing the average quotient price over 143 working days. This average has been lower than the long-run mean at 7.87. This observation hints at a potential buying opportunity for digital assets based on the mean reversion theory.
- The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices, over time, tend to revert to their historical average returns. The fact that the current average quotient price is below the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently undervalued compared to historical trends.
- The chart also presents the returns achieved with the stock price generated by buying one point of the respective index daily over the past twelve months.
- The NWST1100 Crypto Index experienced a 1.65% gain compared to a year ago. Additionally, the purchased stock of the index achieved a 2.6% decrease compared to the index’s current price.
- In contrast, the DJW Capital Index (traditional stocks) experienced a 12.52% gain compared to a year ago. It achieved a 6.9% return on the purchased stock of the index based on daily purchases.
BTC ANALYSIS CHART
Basis indicator BTC
All market is in a bearish trend with indicator giving Strong Sell signal
BTC Technical Analysis
The weekly candle has closed with an inverted hammer candlestick, showing rejection at both the 10 and 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average). The presence of the strong 200 EMA adds significance to this indicator.
In the weekly T-F, a bearish pattern is forming, which could have implications for BTC’s price in the near future.
BTC in Weekly T-F
Now, let’s shift our focus to the daily T-F: BTC recently tested the resistance level between $27,000 and $27,500 but failed to reclaim it. This failure is highlighted by the formation of a shooting star pattern.
Currently, BTC is trading in the range of $25,300 to $26,000, creating both Higher Lows and Lower Lows, which align with Dow Theory and suggest a decreasing structure in the short term.
BTC Last Week Analysis in Daily T-F
BTC rejected the Resistance zone at $27,000 – $27,500
Turning our attention to the TOTAL3 (excluding BTC and ETH), the total market cap stands at $328 billion to $330 billion. Here, a Head and Shoulders pattern is forming, with the neckline at approximately $320 billion.
If any 4-hour candlestick closes below this demand zone, it could trigger a drop to the $312-314 billion range, potentially negatively impacting altcoins.